AGP Executive Report

Foreign Trade: South Sudan’s Foreign Ministry says there is no national order for foreign traders to leave. The dispute stems from a Juba County directive reserving small-scale retail for locals and steering foreign traders toward wholesale and larger investment. Uganda has urged Juba to protect traders’ interests and respect East African Community commitments. Digital Payments: The Trade Ministry and MTN are discussing restoring Mobile Money services, a key step for businesses and customers facing limited digital payment options. Mining Reform: The government is moving to overhaul mining laws that have been in place for 14 years. Market Access: Rehabilitation has begun on the Magwi–Palotaka–Palwar road, expected to help farmers get produce to market and improve local trade.

Trade Tensions: South Sudan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry says no order has been issued for foreigners to leave, after Juba County urged them to exit small-scale retail. Uganda has called for fair treatment of its traders and respect for the EAC common market. Tax Deadline: Businesses have until October 15 to file returns and clear outstanding tax bills, the Revenue Authority says, warning unregistered firms they risk penalties. Digital Payments: The Trade Ministry and MTN have discussed reopening Mobile Money services, which businesses rely on for transactions. Product Standards: An upgraded Juba laboratory is expected to cut product-certification delays from two to three months to about one month, helping local firms test goods at home. Market Access: Rehabilitation has begun on the long-awaited Magwi–Palotaka–Palwar road, which should make it easier for farmers to move produce to market.

Mobile Money: The government and MTN are discussing how to restore MoMo transactions, with officials also promising to address connectivity problems that affect businesses and customers. Foreign Retail Trade: Juba County Commissioner Kalisto Lado denied ordering foreigners to leave Juba, but said small-scale retail should be reserved for South Sudanese, with foreign traders encouraged to focus on wholesale and larger investments. Uganda has urged South Sudan to protect its traders’ lawful businesses. Tax Compliance: The Revenue Authority set October 15 as the deadline for businesses to file returns and clear outstanding liabilities, warning that unregistered firms could face penalties. Trade Standards: An upgraded standards laboratory in Juba is expected to cut product certification delays from two to three months to about one month, helping local goods reach markets faster. Roads and Markets: Rehabilitation has begun on the long-awaited Magwi–Palotaka–Palwar road, a key route expected to help farmers move produce to market.

Tax Compliance: The South Sudan Revenue Authority has set October 15 as the deadline for businesses to file returns and clear outstanding taxes, warning that unregistered firms without a Tax Identification Number risk penalties. Juba Revenue Reform: Juba City Council is considering digital revenue collection to reduce leakages and fund services including roads, sanitation and markets. Trade and Standards: A renovated Juba laboratory is expected to cut product-certification delays from two to three months to about one. South Sudan is also taking part in EAC talks on shared food-safety standards, which could support regional trade. Foreign Retailers: Juba County says foreign investors can operate in South Sudan but should focus on wholesale and larger investments, not small-scale retail. Uganda has urged South Sudan to protect lawful businesses and respect EAC rules, as traders report uncertainty. Mining Investment: The government has begun reviewing mining laws and regulations after 14 years, aiming to address gaps in the sector’s framework.

Regional Trade: Uganda urged Juba to protect its traders after Juba County Commissioner Kalisto Ladu said foreigners should leave small-scale retail to South Sudanese and focus on wholesale and larger investments. He denied ordering foreigners to leave the country; Uganda called for concerns to be handled without discrimination through bilateral or regional channels. Mining Reform: The government has begun reviewing mining laws and regulations introduced 14 years ago, aiming to address governance gaps and update the sector’s policy and strategy. Investment: South Sudan and Pakistan discussed cooperation in sugar, pharmaceuticals and industry. Separately, the Petroleum Ministry’s investment memorandum with UAE-based Bianchi Gold covers exploration, refining and infrastructure. Trade and Infrastructure: China’s zero-tariff market access offers a potential opening for South Sudanese exports, while officials are working on a legal framework for a dedicated road maintenance fund. Agriculture: The World Bank warned that El Niño-related heat and rainfall disruption could reduce crop yields in South Sudan and neighboring countries.

UAE Oil Deal: South Sudan signed a strategic investment memorandum with UAE-based Bianchi Gold Trading Investment Company to expand petroleum exploration, infrastructure, refining, storage and capacity building. Retail Crackdown Fallout: Juba County caretaker commissioner Kalisto Ladu denied any “seven-day ultimatum” to expel foreigners, but reiterated that small-scale retail (chapati, onions, tomatoes, boda bodas) should be reserved for South Sudanese while foreigners focus on wholesale and bigger investments—fueling fresh uncertainty among Ugandan and Kenyan traders. Roads Funding Push: The National Ministry of Roads and Bridges moved to set up a Roads Maintenance Fund, reviewing a bill needing presidential signature, alongside bridge and highway contracting plans. Mining Overhaul: A Juba workshop reviewed and validated reforms to South Sudan’s mining policy, 2026–2030 strategic plan, and amendments to the Mining Act and mineral title regulations. Humanitarian Pressure: WFP warned food stocks are collapsing for refugees and vulnerable people, with more than a million at risk of losing life-saving assistance; meanwhile, South Sudan’s aid crisis is deepening amid conflict and dry conditions. Teachers and Health Strain: Rural schools struggle to retain teachers due to housing, insecurity and unpaid gaps, while only 11% of health facilities are highly functional and the health response plan remains underfunded. Dangote Refinery Momentum: Dangote says the $16bn East Africa refinery in Lamu will be delivered in 40 months, with 30% equity offered to East African countries—boosting regional energy and trade expectations.

Foreign Retail Crackdown: Juba County caretaker commissioner Kalisto Ladu warned foreign traders to stop small-scale retail (chapati stalls, onions/tomatoes, boda boda, charcoal) and said retail is reserved for South Sudanese, while foreigners should focus on wholesale and company investments; traders say they received verbal notices and want clarity on enforcement. Trade & Regional Politics: South Sudan and Kenya renewed commitments on trade and regional infrastructure after talks in Nairobi, with Kenya’s President William Ruto reaffirming support for the December 2026 elections and pointing to the Dangote East Africa refinery launch in Lamu as a cooperation boost. Election Readiness: South Sudan says it has completed legal steps for the December polls and is pushing inter-party dialogue for consensus, while Central Equatoria’s caretaker governor ordered ministers to protect public resources and prepare for peaceful, credible voting. Food & Health Pressure: The World Bank warns El Niño could cut crop yields across South Sudan and the region, while humanitarian reporting highlights conflict and dry conditions affecting hundreds of thousands and only 11% of health facilities are highly functional; the survival minimum expenditure basket fell 10% in September but remains high. Banking & Cash: The Trade Ministry urged commercial banks to form a banking union and accelerate digital banking amid a severe South Sudanese Pound cash shortage disrupting withdrawals and trade.

Food Prices & Cost of Living: The Multi-Sector Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket for a six-person household fell 10% in September to 804,633 SSP, driven by lower food and non-food prices, though market constraints remain. Humanitarian Crisis: Conflict and prolonged dry conditions are worsening food insecurity, with Warrap reporting over 210,000 people needing aid and drought hitting nearly 1.3 million in Northern Bahr el Ghazal. Health System Strain: Only 11% of supported health facilities are highly functional; the health response plan is 47% funded with a 53% funding gap. Elections & Governance: South Sudan says it has completed legal steps for the 22 December 2026 polls; Kenya’s Ruto pledged support and urged dialogue. Trade & Finance: The Trade Ministry urged banks to form a banking union and accelerate digital banking as the South Sudanese Pound cash shortage disrupts withdrawals and trade. Refugees’ Rights: Refugees in settlements like Gorom want easier movement and recognition of documents, plus better access to services. Local Business & Security: Traders in Morobo want caretaker leadership to prioritize security to protect goods and revive cross-border commerce.

Dangote Refinery Finance: Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority approved eligible investors to join Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals’ IPO via GDRs, with the IPO running Sept 14–Oct 13 and a possible Nairobi Securities Exchange listing after Nigeria’s regulator approvals. Trade & Payments: South Sudan’s Trade Ministry urged commercial banks to form a banking union and accelerate digital banking as a shortage of South Sudanese Pound notes continues to disrupt withdrawals and trade. China Market Access: China’s expanded zero-tariff policy (from May 1) could open more opportunities for South Sudanese goods entering China, provided rules of origin are met. Manufacturing Support: The Association of South Sudan Manufacturers backed renovation of the Ministry of Trade and Industry compound in Juba, aiming for better working conditions for the private sector. Food Security & Jobs: A cassava flour processing project launched in Wau (funded with support from Norway through LAST) targets lower prices and improved local food security. Local Business Climate: Morobo traders urged the new caretaker commissioner to prioritize security to protect goods and revive cross-border commerce. Education Pressure in Yei: Teachers in Yei River County demanded better pay and conditions, citing months of delayed salaries and rising attrition from the profession. Elections & Civic Space: Civil society groups called for inclusive dialogue and protection of constitutional freedoms ahead of the Dec 22, 2026 elections, warning gaps remain in preparedness.

Morobo County Leadership Test: Isaac Moro Johnson Lupai was sworn in as Caretaker Commissioner for Morobo, Central Equatoria, with security and humanitarian pressures expected to define his early performance. Food Processing & Self-Reliance: A cassava flour processing project was launched in Wau, Western Bahr el Ghazal, aiming to cut food insecurity and lower prices using locally grown crops. Elections & Civic Space: President Salva Kiir traveled to Kenya for talks with President William Ruto on elections and regional stability, while civil society groups urged protection of constitutional freedoms and transparency ahead of the December 22, 2026 vote. Oil Sector Under Strain: South Sudan’s Petroleum Ministry reviewed ways to attract investment and raise output, as officials warned that Sudan’s war continues to disrupt crude exports through Port Sudan. Governance & Accountability: The Relief and Rehabilitation Commission urged 32 EU-grant CSOs to strengthen transparency and inclusive participation, as CORWADO reviewed programme quality and strategy in Juba. Regional Trade & Costs: Piracy in the western Indian Ocean has hijacked six ships since April, threatening higher import costs for Kenya and landlocked neighbors like South Sudan. Health Preparedness: Western Equatoria stepped up readiness for Bundibugyo virus disease after a cross-border risk assessment with health partners.

South Sudan Elections & Governance: Canada will fund South Sudan’s December election preparations via a UN-managed fund, but Ottawa says it has “deep concerns” over political restrictions and missing safeguards that could undermine credibility and raise conflict risks. Regional Diplomacy: President Salva Kiir has travelled to Kenya for political and economic talks with President William Ruto, including discussions on electoral preparations and South Sudan’s role in the newly launched Lamu refinery. Oil & Trade Disruption: South Sudan’s oil exports remain heavily disrupted by the war in Sudan, with crude flows and revenue threatened as exports depend on Port Sudan routing. Oil Revival Push: South Sudan’s Petroleum Ministry says it is reviewing sector performance with partners to improve the investment climate, boost production, and attract domestic and foreign capital. Macroeconomic Pressure: The Bank of South Sudan reports gross international reserves at about five days of import cover, with reserves falling sharply and the trade balance improving alongside resumed oil production. Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160m from its emergency fund for severely underfunded crises, including South Sudan, to support life-saving aid. Standards & Digitalization: The South Sudan National Bureau of Standards is advancing an Enterprise Resource Planning system in Juba and engaging on ISO cooperation in Paris. Health Security: Western Equatoria is strengthening readiness for Bundibugyo virus disease after WHO and partners assessed border entry points and isolation capacity. Women & Jobs: Germany is funding community projects for women and girls across Equatoria states, including education, protection, and economic empowerment.

South Sudan Oil Revival: The Ministry of Petroleum met partners to review performance and push investment, with production currently cited around 70,000–100,000 bpd, while Sudan War Impact: Foreign Minister Ramdan Goc told the UN that fighting in Sudan has disrupted South Sudan’s crude exports via Port Sudan, threatening the state’s main revenue lifeline. Forex Pressure: The Bank of South Sudan reported gross international reserves falling to about five days of import cover, leaving the economy exposed. Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160m from CERF for 12 crisis-hit areas including South Sudan, with $15m earmarked for the country. Food Security Risks: UN Women warned Middle East escalation could push an extra 11.7m women and girls into food insecurity by end-2026, and South Sudan faces the highest proportional risk. Women & Credit: Ecobank pledged $2bn by 2030 for women-owned businesses across Sub-Saharan Africa, including South Sudan, using digital onboarding to bring more traders into formal finance. Standards & Digital Systems: The National Bureau of Standards advanced its ERP rollout in Juba and engaged internationally on building trust in a changing world. Regional Trade & Integration: Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi urged deeper African economic integration amid global trade pressures. Health Preparedness: Western Equatoria boosted readiness for Bundibugyo virus disease after a cross-border border health assessment with partners. Telecom Tax Policy: Zain, MTN and Digitel were directed to settle tax arrears in cash to ease liquidity strain. Lamu Refinery Spillovers: Kenya’s Dangote-led Lamu refinery is expected to lift regional shipping and logistics—an opportunity South Sudan is still trying to fully lock into.

Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160m from its emergency fund for 12 crisis-hit countries, including South Sudan ($15m), to support life-saving aid and improve access for people with disabilities. Macroeconomy & FX: South Sudan’s gross international reserves reportedly fell to about five days of import cover, far below the EAC benchmark, as the trade balance improved with resumed oil production. Standards & Digital Systems: The South Sudan National Bureau of Standards unveiled progress on an ERP system in Juba and highlighted ISO engagement in Paris, aiming for more transparent, service-oriented operations. Women & Youth Economic Support: Germany funded community projects for women and girls across Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal, while Ecobank pledged $2bn for women-owned businesses across Sub-Saharan Africa, including South Sudan. Food Security Risks: UN Women warned that Middle East escalation could push 11.7m more women and girls into food insecurity by end-2026, with South Sudan facing the highest proportional risk. Oil, Trade & Legal/Policy Moves: South Sudan’s Bank appealed a $1bn Qatar National Bank arbitration enforcement ruling, and South Sudan-Turkey advanced plans to implement a 2017 trade and economic cooperation deal. Governance & Security: Caretaker leaders in Central Equatoria and Lakes agreed to tackle illegal border checkpoints, while mobile operators were directed to settle tax arrears in cash. Court Update: A Special Court ruling allowed Riek Machar to present his defence orally, with trial resuming 7 October.

Standards & Digital Governance: South Sudan’s National Bureau of Standards moved to the final stage of its ERP rollout in Juba, aiming for more efficient, transparent operations, while its executive director attended the ISO General Assembly in Paris to push standards collaboration. FX & Trade Pressure: The Bank of South Sudan reported gross international reserves plunged 67.21% in Q1 2025 to about five days of import cover, even as oil-driven exports rose and the trade deficit narrowed. Women, Food & Humanitarian Funding: Germany funded community projects for women and girls across Central and Eastern Equatoria plus Western Bahr el Ghazal; UN Women warned Middle East escalation could push an extra 11.7 million women and girls into food insecurity by end-2026, and the UN released $160m from CERF for underfunded humanitarian crises including South Sudan. Border Security & Elections: Caretaker governors in Central Equatoria and Lakes agreed to reduce illegal roadblocks and coordinate security ahead of December elections. Energy & Regional Trade: Kenya’s Lamu port is set for higher vessel traffic tied to Dangote’s $17bn refinery, a potential lifeline for South Sudan’s oil corridor—though commentary notes Juba’s limited engagement. Business & Finance Risks: South Sudan challenged a US court ruling enforcing a $1bn Qatar National Bank arbitration award, while Ecobank expanded credit for women-owned businesses, and telecom firms were ordered to settle tax arrears in cash. Regional Deals: South Sudan and Turkey moved to implement a 2017 trade and economic cooperation agreement covering mining, agriculture, fisheries, energy and tax treaties.

Agriculture & Markets: Yei River County is urged to move from subsistence to a county-led market system to link farmers, cooperatives and agribusiness to finance, storage and reliable buyers. Food Security (Women hardest hit): UN Women warns Middle East escalation could push an extra 11.7 million women and girls into food insecurity by end-2026, with South Sudan facing the highest proportional risk. Banking & Legal Risk: The Bank of South Sudan has appealed a US court ruling enforcing a $1bn Qatar National Bank arbitration award, tied to a 2018 loan and missed repayments. Trade & Investment: South Sudan and Turkey are advancing a 2017 trade and economic cooperation framework, including mining, agriculture, livestock, fisheries, energy and double-taxation protections. Women’s Finance: Ecobank commits $2bn by 2030 for women-owned businesses across Sub-Saharan Africa, including South Sudan, using digital onboarding and credit support for agribusiness and other sectors. Tax & Cash Policy: Zain, MTN and Digitel are directed to settle tax arrears in cash, abandoning electronic payments amid a liquidity crunch. Regional Trade Facilitation: South Sudan and Uganda sign a one-stop border crossing deal to cut delays and costs for cross-border business, with a focus on women traders. Standards & Trade Readiness: South Sudan’s standards bureau expands engagement at ISO’s Paris assembly to strengthen quality assurance for regional and international markets. Elections Prep (Local Governance): Juba County caretaker commissioner Kalisto Ladu Nyigilo vows political neutrality as December elections approach.

South Sudan–Kenya Trade: South Sudan’s ambassador to Kenya urged Nairobi to cut costly trade barriers, spotlighting high customs bond fees, delays, and paperwork that raise the cost of doing business for South Sudanese traders. Oil & Investment: President Salva Kiir appointed Awow Daniel Chuang as Caretaker Minister of Petroleum, signaling a push to strengthen regulation and attract new exploration and redevelopment investment ahead of December elections. Standards & Markets: South Sudan’s National Bureau of Standards expanded its ISO engagement in Paris, aiming to build trust and improve quality assurance for regional and international trade. Humanitarian Funding: UN OCHA says donors have provided nearly $1.2bn for South Sudan humanitarian action, including $980m under the Crisis Response Plan, with funds tracked through the Financial Tracking Service. Regional Energy Push: South Sudan joined a high-profile Lamu refinery push led by Dangote, with the project framed as a jobs and energy-security boost across East and Central Africa. Community & Social Impact: Central Equatoria chiefs committed to ending child marriage and protecting girls, while Yei residents faced renewed calls to address insecurity and violence.