AGP Executive Report

Banking Oversight: Kenya’s Central Bank moves to rein in “too big to fail” lenders, proposing limits on expansion and new products for systemically important banks like Equity, KCB, NCBA, Co-operative and I&M. Trade & Integration: Kenya’s foreign small-trader crackdown is spilling into a wider EAC integration debate, with questions over work permits and how enforcement aligns with the Common Market Protocol. Livestock & Food Supply: Kenya reports African Swine Fever has killed about 1,470 pigs in Kiambu and spread to six more counties, prompting tighter surveillance and cross-border movement controls. Women & Livelihoods in South Sudan: A new women’s centre opens in Aweil West to offer training, business support and gender-based violence prevention. Security & Trade Corridor: Juba–Torit highway insecurity is raising transport costs and threatening market access for traders and farmers. Governance & Elections: UN experts warn conditions for South Sudan elections remain unfavorable amid violence and weak accountability. Drought Risk: South Sudan faces worsening drought pressures on food, livestock and livelihoods, with calls for early-warning and long-term resilience planning. Regional Migration Data: IGAD says Uganda is a key migration destination and transit hub, but data gaps limit governments’ ability to manage risks. Ebola Watch: DRC’s Ebola fight hits a “tipping point,” with the risk of the outbreak becoming the worst on record.

Women’s Livelihoods & Safety: A new Neymlel Women’s Centre opened in Aweil West, offering training, business support and gender-based violence prevention, funded by the EU and Germany via ResPEct/GIZ. Human Rights & Governance: UN experts warn that violence and impunity are endangering civilians and undermining South Sudan’s democratic transition, urging credible accountability and better use of public resources. Elections & Stability: UN experts say conditions for South Sudan elections remain unfavorable, as political divisions and security risks continue to cloud the run-up to polls. Trade & Roads: A call to secure the Juba–Torit highway highlights how insecurity is raising transport costs, disrupting food and goods movement, and choking investment along the corridor. Livestock & Food Security: Kenya reports African Swine Fever killing 1,470 pigs in Kiambu and spreading to six counties, while authorities step up surveillance and cross-border movement controls—an important regional signal for markets. Drought & Early Action: A drought-focused opinion urges South Sudan to move from emergency relief to early warning, water investment, climate-resilient farming and livestock support. Community Power & Cash Transfers: A feature on Group Cash Transfer (GCT) argues aid should shift decision-making and financial agency to grassroots collectives, not just deliver individual handouts.

Women’s Livelihoods: A new Neymlel Women’s Centre opened in Aweil West, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, offering training, business support and gender-based violence prevention under EU/Germany’s ResPEct project. Local Development & Jobs: Displaced women in Tambura are turning vocational skills like shoemaking into small business income, using UNMISS-supported training to pay school fees and food. Livestock & Trade Risk: Kenya reported African Swine Fever killing 1,470 pigs in Kiambu and spreading to six more counties, prompting stepped-up surveillance and tighter controls on cross-border livestock movement. Governance & Business Climate: UN experts warned South Sudan’s December 22, 2026 elections face unfavorable conditions due to violence, civic space restrictions and stalled peace agreement implementation—raising uncertainty for investment and trade. Security on Trade Routes: Growing insecurity along the Juba–Torit highway is pushing up transport costs and threatening market access for traders and farmers. Drought & Food Security: WFP highlights worsening drought linked to El Niño, with early action urged to protect livelihoods and food supplies in South Sudan. Wildlife & Land Use: South Sudan’s wildlife ministry plans community-involved protected area boundary demarcation to reduce land-use conflicts and improve conservation planning.

Livestock & Trade Security: Kenya reports African Swine Fever has killed 1,470 pigs in Kiambu and now threatens six more counties, prompting tighter surveillance and controls on cross-border livestock movement—an issue that can quickly disrupt pork supply and regional trade. Border & Business Climate: South Sudan’s UN human rights experts warn that conditions for December 22, 2026 elections remain unfavorable, with violence and shrinking civic space raising risks for business confidence and investment planning. Drought & Food Economy: A fresh call for practical drought mitigation in South Sudan pushes for early-warning systems, water investments, climate-resilient farming, and livestock support—measures aimed at protecting livelihoods and market stability. Roads & Market Access: Insecurity along the Juba–Torit highway is driving up transport costs and threatening trade in food and farm goods, with knock-on effects for prices and local business growth. Digital Jobs: MTN South Sudan launched an ICT hub in Rumbek to train youth and support entrepreneurs, targeting skills that can feed the country’s growing digital economy. Energy & Industry (Regional): Kenya’s Dangote refinery push continues to attract attention, with plans for major processing and power supply that could reshape regional fuel and industrial economics.

Wildlife Governance: South Sudan’s wildlife ministry says communities will be involved in drafting a national policy and procedures for demarcating protected areas, after past boundary records were lost amid conflict. Election Conditions: UN human rights experts warn that December 2026 elections face unfavorable conditions, citing renewed violence, shrinking civic space, and stalled implementation of the Revitalized Peace Agreement. Road Security & Trade: Growing insecurity on the Juba–Torit corridor is raising transport costs and market prices, threatening farmers’ access to buyers and discouraging investment along the route. Digital Jobs: MTN South Sudan launched an ICT hub in Rumbek to train youth in digital skills and support entrepreneurs and job seekers in Lakes State. Tax & Enforcement: Uganda’s URA seized a cigarette smuggling operation using modified Fuso trucks with hidden compartments, with contraband reportedly entering from South Sudan. Regional Health Preparedness: Kenya stepped up Ebola readiness at busy land borders, training border stakeholders and health workers as DR Congo’s outbreak worsens. Drought & Food Security: A call for practical drought mitigation urges early-warning systems, water investments, climate-resilient farming, and support for pastoral livelihoods. Energy & Industry (Regional): Dangote’s Lamu refinery plans in Kenya continue to move forward, with discussions on a 1,000MW LNG-linked power plant and attention on crude supply hurdles. Migration Data: An IGAD report flags Uganda as a major migration destination and transit hub, but warns that limited migration data across the region hampers risk planning.

Aviation & Trade: SolitAir launched new freight services to Ghana via Accra, adding a 6,250 km link between Accra and Dubai World Central and boosting cargo capacity on a corridor dominated by gold, foodstuff and perishables. Energy & Investment: Kenya is set to break ground on Dangote’s Sh2.2tn Lamu refinery on September 30, with the project framed as a shift from fuel imports to a regional processing hub; analysts note the biggest risk is securing reliable crude supply. Power Expansion: Dangote is also negotiating a gas-to-power LNG plan in Lamu, with Kenya pushing for up to 1,000MW using gas from Tanzania—subject to supply, financing and power-purchase deals. South Sudan Border Trade: South Sudan’s Economic Cluster approved a Nimule one-stop border post, funded by the EU and implemented by UNOPS, aiming to speed up cross-border trade with Uganda. Banking & Revenue: Commercial banks praised cash collection reforms and discussed closing loopholes in revenue collection with clearing agents and freight forwarders in Nimule. SME Support: IDPs in Amadi, Juba received start-up items to expand small businesses, targeting livelihood recovery and local market activity. Food Security: El Niño-linked drought risks are worsening hunger in South Sudan’s Eastern Equatoria, with WFP pushing early action to protect vulnerable households. Public Health & Preparedness: Ebola readiness is being strengthened across the region, including Kenya’s border training and Rwanda’s preparedness efforts as DRC cases rise.

Customs Crackdown: Uganda’s URA says it has impounded two modified Fuso trucks allegedly used to smuggle 300+ cartons of cigarettes from South Sudan via Arua and a ferry route, with the contraband concealed in welded compartments. Gold Sanctions: Switzerland has banned imports of gold originating in Sudan and also restricts related mining goods, aligning with EU measures that take effect 10 September. Elections & Business Risk: UN human rights experts warn South Sudan’s December 22, 2026 elections face unfavorable conditions, citing violence, political tensions, and shrinking civic space. Tax Deadline: South Sudan Revenue Authority reminds businesses that 15 September 2026 is the deadline to file and pay August tax obligations, including monthly and quarterly returns and audit arrears. Statistics Governance: President Kiir appoints a new National Bureau of Statistics board chaired by former Finance Minister Dr. Dier Tong Ngor to strengthen oversight of official data. Trade Facilitation: South Sudan’s Economic Cluster approves a Nimule one-stop border post, funded by the EU and implemented by UNOPS, aimed at boosting cross-border trade with Uganda. Livelihood Support: IDPs in Amadi, Central Equatoria, receive start-up items to expand small businesses, targeting women-led trading and food sales. Digital Skills Push: MTN South Sudan launches an ICT hub in Rumbek, offering training and innovation support for youth entrepreneurs and job seekers. Ebola Watch: DRC Ebola response hits a “tipping point,” with the main bottleneck now being shortages of trained staff and treatment capacity as cases and deaths climb.

Energy & Industry: Dangote is negotiating a 1,000MW LNG gas-to-power project in Kenya’s Lamu area tied to its planned 700,000 bpd refinery, with gas potentially sourced from Tanzania—though analysts warn the refinery still faces major hurdles on crude supply, financing and port infrastructure. Cross-Border Trade: South Sudan’s Economic Cluster has approved a EU-funded one-stop border post for Nimule, aimed at speeding trade with Uganda. Tax & Revenue: The South Sudan Revenue Authority set September 15 as the deadline for August tax filing and payments, including monthly and quarterly obligations and arrears, with moves toward bank-based collections to improve transparency. Statistics & Governance: President Salva Kiir appointed a new National Bureau of Statistics board chaired by former Finance Minister Dr. Dier Tong Ngor to strengthen oversight and official data for planning. Elections & Political Settlement: Kiir will convene an inter-party dialogue on September 17 to align parties on the electoral pathway, including boundaries, financing, security, observers and dispute resolution. Local Livelihoods: IDPs in Amadi, Juba received start-up support (food items like flour and cooking oil) to expand small businesses and boost livelihoods. Business Compliance in Kenya: A South Sudan lawmaker urged South Sudanese small traders in Kenya to secure licenses and register through the embassy ahead of enforcement actions.

Nimule Trade & Revenue: The Economic Cluster has approved a EU-funded one-stop border post in Nimule to speed up cross-border trade with Uganda, while the Interior Minister ordered downsizing of staff at the border to curb revenue leakages and improve collection. Banking & Cash Policy: Commercial banks praised the Economic Reforms Committee’s cash collection policy and said talks with clearing agents and freight/forwarders aim to close loopholes in revenue collection. Tax Deadline: The South Sudan Revenue Authority set September 15 as the deadline for August tax filing and payments, including monthly and quarterly returns and audit arrears, with payments directed through designated revenue banks. Budget & Elections Funding: Finance Minister Kuol Daniel Ayulo tabled the SSP 11.34 trillion 2026/27 budget, with oil projected at 79.5% of revenue, and a separate proposal allocates nearly SSP 184 billion for December 22 election-related activities. Statistics Governance: President Kiir appointed a new National Bureau of Statistics board chaired by former Finance Minister Dr. Dier Tong Ngor to strengthen oversight of official data. Livelihood Support: IDPs in Amadi (Juba) received start-up items to expand small businesses, targeting women traders and host-community beneficiaries. Oil & Regional Energy Watch: Analysts flagged crude supply, financing, and infrastructure risks for Aliko Dangote’s planned Lamu refinery, while Uganda’s new “Pearl Sweet” grade faces buyer challenges due to wax and heating costs.

South Sudan Budget Push: Finance Minister Kuol Daniel Ayulo tabled the 2026-27 budget of SSP 11.34 trillion, with oil revenue projected at SSP 9.01 trillion and non-oil at SSP 2.32 trillion, as the country braces for December 22 elections and wider economic reforms. Election Funding: The National Elections Commission was allocated nearly SSP 184 billion for civic and voter education plus election operations, with training of officials already underway. Tax Deadline: The South Sudan Revenue Authority set September 15 as the deadline for filing and paying August taxes, including sales and excise for key sectors, and urged businesses to keep using online filing. Cross-Border Trade & Compliance: A South Sudan legislator in Kenya urged small traders to secure Kenyan licenses and register with the South Sudan Embassy in Nairobi to avoid shutdowns after Kenya’s foreign trader crackdown. Regional Currency Plan: EAC’s 2031 single-currency goal faces tough reality, with most member states struggling to meet convergence targets. Ebola Shock to Business: UN updates say DRC Ebola deaths have passed 3,200, with WFP warning food aid must be part of the response as funding gaps grow. Health Security Deal: South Sudan and Uganda signed a health security agreement to improve surveillance and joint outbreak response along their border. Infrastructure for Trade: Juba–Nimule highway repairs are set to resume after funding approval, aiming to cut transport costs for traders and road users. EAC Trade Climate: Kenya’s enforcement against foreign hawkers is also drawing legal pushback from the East Africa Law Society, raising uncertainty for regional small-business flows. Oil & Industry Watch: Dangote’s planned Lamu refinery in Kenya highlights feedstock and regulatory hurdles for East Africa’s next wave of refining investment.

South Sudan Budget Push: Finance Minister Kuol Daniel Ayulo tabled the 2026-27 national budget of SSP 11.34 trillion in parliament, with oil revenue projected at SSP 9.01 trillion and non-oil at SSP 2.32 trillion, as the government links the plan to economic stability and private-sector growth. Election Funding: A separate proposal sets aside nearly SSP 184 billion for pre-election activities ahead of the Dec 22, 2026 vote. Tax Deadline: The South Sudan Revenue Authority ordered taxpayers to file and pay August taxes by September 15, covering income, sales/excise for key sectors, and arrears through designated banks. Roads & Trade: Repairs on the Juba–Nimule Highway are set to resume after funding approval for urgent maintenance, a key corridor for traders and transport to Uganda. Cross-Border Health: South Sudan and Uganda signed a health security agreement to improve outbreak surveillance and coordinated response along their shared border. Regional Business Links: A Pakistan-Africa Economic Council launch aims to connect investors to Africa’s 1.59 billion-person market, with initial focus on East Africa including South Sudan. Ebola Response Angle: WFP says eastern DR Congo’s Ebola response must include food aid for remote communities at near-starvation levels.

Airport Revenue Crackdown: South Sudan’s Economic Reforms Committee will inspect tax and revenue-collecting agencies at Juba International Airport, including working conditions and revenue collection methods, with Civil Aviation and Transport officials involved. Cross-Border Health Security: South Sudan and Uganda signed a health security agreement in Juba to boost disease surveillance, lab readiness and joint outbreak response along their shared border, prioritizing threats like cholera and viral hemorrhagic fevers. Trade & Compliance at Borders: A reforms sub-committee in Nimule will follow up orders against malpractices that deprive the state of revenue, focusing on smoother clearance of goods heading to Juba and other areas. Food Aid Dependency Push: VP Taban Deng urged communities to reduce reliance on humanitarian food aid and increase local farming, warning that long-term handouts have created a dependency syndrome. Regional Business & Logistics: SolitAir launched freight services to Ghana via Accra, adding capacity for exports like gold and perishables and expanding its African cargo network. Energy & Industry Watch: Dangote outlined multi-country expansion plans and kicked off preliminary steps toward a large IPO tied to the Dangote refinery and petrochemicals free zone.

UN Arms Embargo Pressure: The UN fact-finding mission on Sudan urged immediate enforcement of the Darfur arms embargo and extending it nationwide, warning that continued military support and transnational networks are fueling more civilian harm. Human Rights Under Strain: UN rights chief Volker Türk said the world is seeing more wars and widening pressure on the human rights system, calling for stronger protections for migrants and accountability for deaths in detention. South Sudan Election Readiness: South Sudanese callers are split on whether December 2026 polls are feasible, citing end-of-rain road conditions and logistics, while others stress political will and timely funding. Revenue Controls at Borders: A ministerial economic reforms sub-committee is in Nimule to follow up orders against malpractices that deprive the state of revenue, with SSRA and security officials tasked to keep clearance moving. Food Aid Dependency Debate: VP Taban Deng urged communities to end reliance on humanitarian food aid, saying it has created a dependency syndrome and pushing youth toward farming. Cross-Border Incident Fallout: Bodies of a South Sudanese soldier and a herder killed near the Uganda border were returned and buried in Kajo-Keji after talks with Ugandan districts. Regional Trade & Investment Context: Kenya’s visa-free entry rules were clarified as not granting work rights, as authorities push tighter compliance for foreign small-scale retail and hawking.

Immigration & Trade Rules: Kenya says visa-free entry and eTA exemptions do not allow foreigners to work, trade, or run businesses, warning that those in retail/hawking must meet immigration and work-permit rules ahead of a Sept 7 deadline. Food Security & Youth Jobs: South Sudan’s VP Taban Deng urged citizens to end “aid dependency,” pushing youth to farm and reserve food rather than rely on relief since 1983. Border Security & Regional Trade: South Sudan and Ethiopia agreed to launch a joint investigation into the killing of Ethiopian UN peacekeepers in Jonglei, alongside plans to strengthen cross-border security and tackle criminal groups. Humanitarian Funding: WFP warned of food cuts for 400,000 South Sudanese refugees and IDPs after September distributions due to a funding shortfall, with rainy-season delivery risks worsening hunger. Oil & Regional Energy: East Africa’s refinery plans are still reshaping regional politics, with Uganda and partners pushing energy hub ideas as refinery locations and pipeline routes remain contested. Migration Pressure: Uganda is emerging as a major destination and transit country in IGAD, with non-residents dominating border movements in 2022.

Currency & Cash Management: South Sudan signs an MoU with De La Rue to strengthen management, security and circulation of the South Sudanese Pound, with technical support on planning, quality control and currency lifecycle improvements. Humanitarian Funding Pressure: WFP warns of food cuts for 400,000 South Sudanese refugees and IDPs after September distributions due to a $280m funding gap, with rainy-season delivery risks and rising malnutrition threats. Health Preparedness: Yei River County receives an additional Ebola preparedness team from Juba to boost surveillance and response, including calls for stronger lab capacity and more trained radiography/X-ray staff. Regional Security & Trade: South Sudan and Ethiopia agree to launch a joint investigation into the killing of Ethiopian UN peacekeepers in Jonglei and to set up mechanisms to curb cross-border criminal groups, alongside broader cooperation on trade and development. Border Stability: Uganda and South Sudan agree to identify, arrest and prosecute individuals linked to Moyo border violence after cattle-related tensions escalated into alleged arson and looting. Political Mobilisation: President Kiir endorses SPLM Youth League’s nationwide grassroots reorganisation and mobilisation ahead of December elections, aiming to rebuild structures from national to boma levels.

Currency & Cash Management: South Sudan’s Ministry of Finance and the Bank of South Sudan signed a currency management MoU with De La Rue to improve South Sudanese Pound planning, forecasting, quality control and circulation—aimed at boosting public confidence amid ongoing cash shortages. Humanitarian Funding Pressure: WFP warns it may cut food assistance for 400,000 South Sudanese refugees and IDPs after September distributions due to a funding gap, with risks highest during the rainy season when roads are flooded and prices rise. Public Health Readiness: Yei River County received an additional Ebola preparedness team from Juba to strengthen surveillance and response, with calls for more lab capacity and trained technical staff at Yei Civil Hospital. Regional Security & Trade: South Sudan and Ethiopia agreed to launch a joint investigation into the killing of Ethiopian UN peacekeepers in Jonglei and to set up joint mechanisms to curb cross-border criminal networks, linking security with trade and economic development. Digital Skills & Jobs: MTN South Sudan launched the Aweil ICT Hub in Northern Bahr el Ghazal to expand learning and practical digital skills for young people. Infrastructure & Markets: Trucks are stuck at Uganda’s Busia border after a cargo scanner breakdown, delaying clearance for goods headed to the DRC and raising transport costs for traders.