AGP Executive Report

Salary Payments: The Bank of South Sudan says civil servants can collect salaries in cash through commercial banks, but gave no details on the payment month or amounts as customers continue to report withdrawal limits. Trade Links: South Sudan and Djibouti discussed implementing a trade pact, including plans for river ports and a dry port in Yei. A separate deal with Uganda aims to tackle border delays, repeated inspections and unofficial charges that raise costs for traders. Markets at Risk: A drone strike on Amiet Market in Abyei killed at least 73 people and injured 19, according to local officials; most victims were traders from Sudan and South Sudan. Growth and Prices: The IMF forecasts 10.5% growth in 2026, but oil-led expansion has yet to ease high prices or improve many households’ purchasing power. Local Production: Juba food businesses are expanding with support for equipment, creating jobs and increasing local supplies of bread, cooking oil and eggs.

Trade with Uganda: South Sudan and Uganda have signed a deal to tackle border delays, repeated cargo checks and unofficial charges. Uganda exports about $524 million in goods to South Sudan each year, while South Sudan exports only $22 million to Uganda. Traders also want direct access to Ugandan manufacturers. Growth and prices: The IMF forecasts South Sudan’s economy will grow 10.5% in 2026, the region’s fastest rate, largely as oil exports recover. But a weak pound, high prices and unpaid salary arrears mean families are not feeling the boom. Local food businesses: Juba bakery Lulu Bakes has grown from two workers to 14, mostly women, using local sorghum and millet. A WFP grant also helped a local oil producer and poultry farm expand, though farmers say they still need reliable markets, storage and finance. Investment push: South Sudan is seeking Saudi investment in several sectors, as Finance Minister Athian Ding Athian met the Saudi Development Fund during IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok.

Oil Security: About 500 newly trained officers are being deployed to protect Paloch’s oil fields ahead of December’s elections. Oil revenues underpin much of South Sudan’s budget, making stable production critical. Growth and Investment: The IMF forecasts 10.5% growth in 2026, the region’s fastest, but this follows a 7.7% contraction in 2025; inflation is still projected at 33.3%. In Bangkok, South Sudan sought Saudi investment and stronger World Bank cooperation, but no commitments were announced. Regional Trade: Border delays and restricted market access continue to strain Uganda–South Sudan commerce. Ugandan traders say 90,000 bags of charcoal from South Sudan, worth about 2.4 billion shillings, are stranded at the border. Agriculture: FAO showcased farming, livestock and fisheries innovations in Terekeka as South Sudan faces severe food insecurity.

Growth Outlook: The IMF projects South Sudan’s economy to grow 10.5% in 2026, the region’s fastest rate, after a 7.7% contraction in 2025. The rebound remains vulnerable to oil disruptions, and the forecast does not guarantee better living standards. Investment Push: In Bangkok, Finance Minister Athian Ding Athian discussed investment opportunities with the Saudi Development Fund and stronger cooperation with the World Bank. Trade Routes: South Sudan’s new membership in a regional maritime body could help improve access to shipping and international markets. But Uganda–South Sudan trade faces border delays and restricted market access; Ugandan traders say charcoal shipments worth about 2.4 billion shillings are stranded at the border. Food and Markets: FAO showcased farming innovations in Terekeka as South Sudan faces severe food insecurity, with 7.8 million people reported at risk. The parallel exchange rate averaged SSP 7,439 per US dollar in early October, adding pressure on import costs.

Growth Outlook: The IMF projects South Sudan’s economy to grow 10.5% in 2026, slowing to 3.9% in 2027 after an exceptional 41.4% in 2025. Heavy reliance on oil leaves the outlook exposed to disruptions in production and exports. Cross-Border Trade: Uganda and South Sudan are pursuing a trade deal, but traders say border delays, unofficial charges and limited access to suppliers are holding back business. A separate charcoal blockade has left more than 90,000 bags, valued at about 2.4 billion Ugandan shillings, stranded at the border. Trade Links: South Sudan’s new membership in a regional maritime body offers a platform to improve freight logistics and access to overseas markets. The country is also seeking cargo-depot access in Tanzania. Oil Sector: President Salva Kiir received a petroleum-sector progress report that included an update on a refinery construction project in Lamu, Kenya.

Cross-Border Trade: Charcoal shipments from South Sudan remain blocked at Uganda’s border, leaving more than 90,000 bags worth about 2.4 billion Ugandan shillings stranded. Traders say the goods were cleared and taxed; the dispute highlights the border delays and trade barriers facing businesses between the neighbours. Economic Outlook: The IMF forecasts South Sudan’s economy will grow 10.5% in 2026, the fastest rate in sub-Saharan Africa, but growth is projected to slow to 3.9% in 2027. The country remains heavily reliant on oil revenues. Trade Links: South Sudan’s new cargo centre in Naivasha, plans to secure a cargo depot in Tanzania and entry into a regional maritime body signal efforts to improve access to ports and international markets. Kenya is expanding Mombasa port capacity and digital cargo systems, a potential boost for regional trade routes. Local Enterprise: A Juba-based women-led processor is turning locally grown oilseeds into cooking oil, linking 90 farmers to markets and offering a domestic alternative to imports.

Oil Sector: President Salva Kiir received a petroleum ministry progress report covering operations and a refinery project in Lamu, Kenya. Cross-Border Trade: Ugandan exporters warn that border delays, costly clearance and restricted market access threaten a key South Sudan market, where annual trade is about $700 million. Currency and Banking: The parallel exchange rate averaged SSP 7,439 per US dollar in early October, while the Bank of South Sudan launched a cybersecurity campaign to protect its systems and financial data. Trade Links: South Sudan joined the maritime organization MOESNA, seeking stronger cooperation on shipping, freight and access to international markets. Growth Outlook: The IMF forecasts 10.5% growth in 2026—the region’s fastest—but expects it to slow to 3.9% next year, underscoring the economy’s exposure to oil production and export disruptions. Local Production: A Juba women-led business is processing locally grown oilseeds into cooking oil, connecting 90 farmers to markets and helping reduce reliance on imports.

Growth Outlook: The IMF projects South Sudan’s economy will grow 10.5% in 2026, the fastest rate in sub-Saharan Africa, but far below 2025’s 41.4% as oil production adjusts. Trade Links: South Sudan is seeking land in Tanzania for an inland cargo depot, adding a route to international markets alongside Mombasa. Uganda says its exports to South Sudan already total about $700 million a year and could rise with smoother border procedures, better security and a rebuilt Juba–Nimule road. Local Production: A Juba food-processing business is turning locally grown oilseeds into cooking oil, linking 90 farmers to markets and reducing reliance on imports. Energy Investment: South Sudan is discussing a proposed $2 billion Fula Dam with South Korea, including plans for hydropower and improved water infrastructure. Food Security: WFP says 7.8 million people struggle to find enough food as funding shortages threaten assistance, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing households and local food systems.

Cross-Border Trade: Uganda wants to grow its annual exports to South Sudan beyond $700 million. The countries have signed a trade MoU and plan joint committees to tackle border delays and costs. Leaders also called for better security on the Juba–Nimule road, a one-stop border post and improved electricity links. Energy Investment: South Sudan is courting South Korean support for the $2 billion Fula Dam, a proposed 1,080-megawatt project, alongside water and flood-control infrastructure. Growth and Finance: IMF projections cited at its Bangkok meetings put South Sudan’s 2026 growth at 10.5%. Bank of South Sudan Governor Addis Ababa Othow urged EAC members to share financial technology and boost investment to deepen trade and widen access to financial services. Livestock: FAO says commercialising the livestock sector, improving animal health and linking pastoralists to markets could strengthen incomes and support economic growth. Food Security: WFP warns 7.8 million people struggle to find enough food as funding shortfalls threaten assistance to more than one million vulnerable people.

Digital Tax: A Zambian delegation visited South Sudan’s Revenue Authority to study its e-Tax and customs platforms, which officials say have improved revenue collection and accountability. Regional Trade: Uganda and South Sudan signed a trade MoU, promising joint committees and a roadmap to tackle border delays and costs. Bilateral trade has reached an estimated $700 million, but officials say progress will depend on implementation. Livestock: FAO says commercialising livestock, improving animal health and linking pastoralists to markets could boost incomes and growth. Business Costs: Juba manufacturers warn that rising city charges and levies are squeezing local producers; they called for consultation on new fees and more transparent digital payments. Prices and Forex: The average food basket cost held at SSP 133,602, while the parallel exchange rate averaged SSP 7,439 per US dollar, a 29% gap from the official rate.

Growth and Investment: The IMF projects South Sudan’s economy will grow 10.5% in 2026, the fastest rate among the countries highlighted in its regional outlook. In Bangkok, South Sudan’s delegation also sought Saudi investment and called for stronger EAC trade links and investment in infrastructure, energy and technology. Business Costs: Manufacturers in Juba have raised concerns over higher city charges and levies, calling for consultation and digital payments to improve transparency. Livestock: FAO says commercialising the livestock sector could boost growth, with priorities including better animal health, productivity and market access. Markets: The average food basket cost held steady at SSP 133,602, but the parallel exchange rate averaged SSP 7,439 to the dollar and fuel prices rose in some markets. Cross-Border Trade: Ugandan charcoal traders say more than 90,000 bags worth UGX 2.4 billion are stranded at the South Sudan border amid enforcement of Uganda’s charcoal ban, disrupting trade and leaving businesses facing losses.

Business Costs: Manufacturers in Juba have raised concerns about rising city charges and levies from Traffic Police and waste contractor PLASCOM, calling for consultation on new fees and more transparent digital payments. Prices and Currency: The average food basket held at SSP 133,602, but the parallel-market exchange rate averaged SSP 7,439 per US dollar, leaving a 29% gap with the official rate. Investment: South Sudan’s delegation in Bangkok courted Saudi financing and held talks with the World Bank on project funding, technical support and debt management. Separately, officials explored South Korean cooperation on the proposed Fula Dam, but no financing or construction agreement was announced. Regional Trade: Uganda–South Sudan trade has reached an estimated $700 million, up from $490 million in 2019, though border delays, testing procedures and infrastructure gaps continue to raise costs for businesses. Oil Project: South Africa is still pursuing a long-delayed South Sudan oil deal, but questions remain over its costs, security risks in Pagak and the difficulty of transporting oil.

Economic Policy: South Sudan’s finance minister and central bank governor met the IMF in Bangkok to discuss reforms, climate-related economic pressures and preparations for December’s elections. The Fund urged stronger fiscal and governance policies. Cross-Border Trade: Uganda–South Sudan trade has climbed to about $700 million, from $490 million in 2019. Businesses say border delays, costly product checks and infrastructure gaps are holding back further growth; officials and traders are due to discuss solutions at a Kampala forum on October 14. Revenue Reform: South Sudan’s Revenue Authority is reviewing progress on an African Development Bank-backed programme to improve non-oil tax collection and compliance. The authority is also planning the country’s first national tax conference to advance reforms and domestic revenue mobilisation. Food and Livelihoods: Flooding has left farmland submerged and destroyed harvests across South Sudan, worsening hunger and eroding rural livelihoods. The country is among the hunger hotspots facing acute food insecurity, according to a new UN report.

IMF Talks: South Sudan’s finance minister and central bank governor met the IMF in Bangkok to discuss reforms, climate pressures on growth and preparations for December’s elections. The Fund urged stronger fiscal and governance policies. Revenue Reform: The Revenue Authority and African Development Bank reviewed the $8.6 million NORMA II project to improve non-oil revenue collection and tax compliance. The authority is also planning the country’s first national tax conference. Regional Logistics: South Sudan has broken ground on a cargo centre in Naivasha, Kenya, to strengthen freight capacity and regional trade links. Mining Rules: The government is moving to overhaul mining laws after 14 years, with reforms due for stakeholder review. Cross-Border Trade: Uganda has urged Juba to honor regional trade commitments amid concern over foreign traders; South Sudan says it has issued no order for them to leave.

Digital Economy: A new opinion argues South Sudan should build digital systems into the foundations of government and commerce, helping improve payments, records and revenue tracking rather than waiting for institutions to mature first. Trade and Logistics: South Sudan has broken ground on a cargo hub in Kenya’s Mai Mahiu Special Economic Zone. The facility is planned as an alternative clearance point for imports and exports, potentially easing the movement of more than 1.5 million tonnes of South Sudan-bound cargo handled through Mombasa each year. Regional Trade: Uganda and South Sudan already exchange up to $800 million in goods annually; businesses say reducing trade barriers could unlock more investment and access to the wider East African market. Business Support: A UNDP programme has provided 1,247 youth- and women-led businesses with interest-free loans, disbursing 4.54 billion SSP. Mining: The government is moving to overhaul mining laws after 14 years, with proposed changes set for stakeholder validation.

Foreign Trade: South Sudan’s government says it has no national order expelling foreign traders, but a Juba County directive restricting foreigners from small-scale retail has unsettled businesses and drawn concern from Uganda. Logistics: South Sudan has broken ground on a cargo hub in Kenya’s Mai Mahiu Special Economic Zone. The 10-hectare site will support customs clearance, storage and cargo consolidation, offering an alternative for more than 1.5 million tonnes of South Sudan-bound cargo handled through Mombasa each year. Regional Trade: Uganda and South Sudan trade up to $800 million in goods annually. Businesses say removing barriers could unlock more investment and wider access to the East African market. Youth Enterprise: A UNDP and African Development Bank project has provided 1,247 youth- and women-led businesses with interest-free loans, totalling 4.54 billion South Sudanese pounds, to support jobs and small-business growth. Mining: The government is moving to overhaul mining laws after 14 years, with stakeholder validation planned.